By the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency market had entered a prolonged pause. This pause is increasingly being described not as a normal correction but as market consolidation and a change of holders. 

After peaking at approximately $126,000 in October, Bitcoin (BTC) corrected by nearly 31% and has mostly traded within a narrow range of around $87,000. Similar patterns are evident in ETH and other major assets, with limited price fluctuations, reduced volatility, and no impulsive trend. At first glance, it seems that the crypto market has frozen. However, on-chain data reveals that fundamental shifts are occurring beneath the surface: a change in major holders. Old whales who accumulated assets in early cycles are gradually taking profits, while new players are carefully accumulating during this sideways movement. This movement of capital in major cryptocurrencies is changing the market structure without causing sharp price jumps.

For this reason, experts do not characterize the current situation in the sector as a phase of weakening, but rather as a period of accumulation before the growth of cryptocurrencies. Analysis of on-chain data shows signs of redistribution, which have historically preceded new trends. 

In this article, we will examine what sideways movement means in the current cycle, how cryptocurrency whales are changing their positions, and why this period could be pivotal for market movement in 2026.

What’s happening in the market

In December 2025, despite the ongoing bullish cycle, Bitcoin fluctuated between $85,000 and $90,000 for most of the month, with short-term movements remaining limited. Ethereum and other strong altcoins are repeating this pattern, demonstrating the classic sideways movement of cryptocurrencies. The reasons for this movement lie deeper than a mere lack of news.

Why are cryptocurrencies trending sideways? The current phase corresponds to a mid-cycle correction, which is also characteristic of past bull markets. Historically, such periods have been accompanied by declines of 25–40% from peaks and have lasted several months before the market moved on to the next impulse. This is not the beginning of a bear cycle or the end of growth but rather a healthy “rest” or reset from overheating. The market is correcting due to profit-taking by early investors, macroeconomic pressure, or simply from rising too rapidly. In this context, the current consolidation fits within the normal market cycle.

A combination of macroeconomic and market factors plays a key role in the current sideways movement.

• Decorrelation with the stock market. While the S&P 500 hits new all-time highs, the crypto market moves independently. Bitcoin is increasingly losing its connection with the Nasdaq, creating uncertainty and reducing speculative activity.
• Macroeconomic pressure. High real yields and the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet contraction are limiting the flow of capital into risky assets.
• ETFs and seasonal selling. In December, the market saw outflows of around $825 million from crypto ETFs in just a few days. This increased pressure on prices, but a collapse was avoided thanks to large buyers absorbing the sales.
• Weak retail demand. Sentiment indicators point to “extreme fear,” which reduces trading volumes and reinforces the consolidation effect.

These factors create an environment in which large holders’ influence on the market becomes decisive and price takes a temporary back seat. In such a situation, on-chain analysis of large cryptocurrency transfers becomes a key assessment tool.

• BTC reserves on exchanges have fallen from ~2.4 million to ~1.8 million, indicating a withdrawal of funds into long-term storage. 
• Whale balances are growing amid falling prices, which is a powerful signal that often precedes an upward price reversal.

Change of large holders

In 2025, whale activity became one of the main factors determining the market structure. On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders (wallets with balances between 100 and 1,000 BTC) accumulated approximately $23.5 billion in assets over the year despite prolonged sideways movement. At the same time, approximately 41,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges, indicating long-term storage strategies.

At the same time, a noticeable change occurred among major holders in the crypto market.

• So-called Satoshi-era whales began taking profits. In July, for example, one of the long-standing holders sold up to 80,000 BTC, worth approximately $9 billion. These sales put pressure on the price, contributing to the correction of almost a third. However, the market did not collapse; the sales were gradually absorbed by new participants, primarily institutional investors.
• In the case of Ethereum, cryptocurrency whales are changing their positions even more significantly. Large holders increased their balances by approximately 120,000 ETH while the supply on exchanges fell to multi-year lows.

Tracking large wallet transactions in 2025 provides clear examples of movements worth millions and billions. 

• For instance, a major player with around $11 billion in capital opened long positions worth $748 million in BTC, ETH, and SOL. 
• The sale of 80,000 BTC through Galaxy Digital was one of the largest transactions of the year. 
• Large wallets accumulated more than $350 million in ETH in December. 
• BlackRock transferred $114 million in BTC and ETH to Coinbase.

Accumulation and distribution cycles

Current market dynamics are based on classic Bitcoin accumulation and distribution cycles. The accumulation phase occurs when large market participants gradually buy assets at reduced prices, which reduces supply on exchanges. The distribution phase occurs near market peaks, when whales take profits and return liquidity to the market.

These phases became particularly apparent in 2025. Old BTC holders sold approximately $15 billion worth of assets as part of the distribution following the October high. Meanwhile, new players began accumulating supply, decreasing the share of individual Bitcoin holders from ~74% in 2024 to ~54% in 2025. 

A period of sideways movement is an optimal time for strategic rotation. Experienced investors are gradually exiting their positions, often using derivatives and over-the-counter (OTC) transactions to avoid crashing the market. New whales, on the other hand, are taking advantage of low volatility to accumulate assets, thereby minimizing slippage and media noise.

In November 2025, during the consolidation, new major players acquired approximately 45,000 BTC. A similar pattern can be observed with Ethereum, where large holders continue to increase their positions despite weak retail activity. Historically, such periods of sideways movement have led to trend reversals. Similar scenarios occurred in 2019 and 2023, followed by phases of accelerated growth.

Several metrics clearly indicate that the movement of large balances is systemic in nature.

• The LTH Net Position Change indicator, which shows the change in the position of long-term holders, has moved from the distribution zone to the accumulation phase. This demonstrates positive 30-day momentum.
• With 102,900 transactions exceeding $100,000 per week, there is high activity among large participants.
• Spot CVI for BTC (which reflects the difference between aggressive buying and selling) remained negative in 2025 (-$46 billion), indicating selling pressure in the spot market and long-term accumulation.
• Divergences between price and on-chain indicators (OBV and RSI) are intensifying, which is often interpreted as the market preparing for a phase change.

Impact on price and volatility

At first glance, it seems logical that the movement of large Bitcoin wallets should immediately affect the price. However, in the current consolidation environment, the market is demonstrating the opposite. In 2025, sales by long-term BTC holders amounting to approximately $15 billion only led to a controlled correction of about 30%. Afterward, the price stabilized within a range. This is due to countervailing demand from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and new large investors who absorb supply without causing sharp price jumps.

One of the key consequences of the current rotation is the transformation of liquidity. There has been a steady decline in exchange reserves, particularly on the Ethereum blockchain, where the supply on trading platforms has reached multi-year lows. This reduces available spot liquidity and increases market sensitivity to future demand.

Meanwhile, although the derivatives market has high liquidity in formal terms, its quality is declining due to the dominance of leveraged positions and short-term speculative strategies. In 2025, negative spot contract value (CVD) for bitcoin (BTC) indicates the dominance of sellers on the spot market, while perpetual (perp) market indicators remain unstable. This discrepancy creates a “choppy market” — sharp, frequent, but limited price movements within a range, which is typical of a sideways market.

During such periods, the influence of large investors on the price becomes clearly visible through gradual redistribution of liquidity, decreased exchange supply, and absorption of sales without sharp price movements.

Investment Strategy

In sideways market conditions, classic technical analysis often provides inaccurate signals. Thus, analyzing the behavior of major BTC and other major asset holders becomes the key tool. 

The most informative signs of BTC and ETH redistribution are:

• Transactions exceeding $100,000. An increase in their number indicates growing interest among large players.
• Whale balances according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode. Their increase amid falling or sideways prices often signals accumulation.
• Withdrawals from exchanges. A reduction in reserves indicates a shift to long-term storage.

If positive momentum is observed for these indicators over a period of 20–30 days, it usually signals an accumulation period before cryptocurrency growth, even if the price appears to be trending sideways.

Despite its apparent stability, sideways movement is one of the most challenging phases for active trading. Cryptocurrency sideways movement and whale strategies can mislead retail investors, causing them to enter and exit prematurely.

Therefore, it is wiser to view sideways movement as a phase of observation and gradual positioning rather than aggressive trading. Focusing on the behavior of large holders and long-term on-chain signals can help reduce mistakes and avoid FOMO.

Possible development scenarios

Signs of preparation for a growth phase

Despite the prolonged sideways movement, on-chain metrics are already forming a number of signals indicating a period of accumulation before the growth of cryptocurrencies. By the end of 2025, these signals will inсlude 

• sustained activity by whales during consolidation, reflected by the accumulation of hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC and ETH, 
• positive momentum in LTH Net Position Change, 
• and growth in staking volumes and long-term storage of ETH worth more than $1 billion.

If seasonal selling pressure finally eases, the market could enter a recovery phase as early as the beginning of 2026. 

Sideways movement intensification scenario

Another possible scenario is maintaining the current market structure. If institutional sales continue and macroeconomic conditions remain tight, market consolidation and a change in ownership could take longer. In this case, Bitcoin could get stuck in the $80,000–$90,000 range and experience a prolonged “chop” without a clear trend. While this scenario is not bearish, it delays the transition to the next phase of the cycle.

Probability of high volatility after consolidation

Historically, periods of prolonged sideways movement have almost always ended with a sharp increase in volatility. The current situation is no exception. On-chain data indicates a reduction in liquidity on exchanges, particularly for Ethereum. This increases the likelihood of a sharp price increase when new demand emerges. The current situation creates conditions for significant price movement in either direction. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are large holders actively moving cryptocurrencies during a sideways movement?

During consolidation, the market allows for position rotation with minimal impact on price. Cryptocurrency whales change positions to lock in profits or acquire new assets without causing increased volatility. Old holders are gradually exiting the market while new, large investors accumulate supply, forming the basis for the next cycle.

1. How does the change in large balances affect the price of BTC and ETH?

While the movement of large ETH and BTC balances puts pressure on the market, it does not always lead to immediate growth or decline. For example, in 2025, BTC sales worth approximately $15 billion only caused a limited correction because institutional demand absorbed the supply. For Ethereum, however, the accumulation of large holders reduces liquidity on exchanges, increasing the likelihood of sharp price movements in the future.

1. What signals indicate a redistribution of cryptocurrencies?

The main signs of redistribution inсlude:

• a decrease in exchange reserves;
• an increase in whale balances when prices are sideways or falling;
• negative Spot CVD;
• divergences between price and on-chain metrics.

1. Can the market be predicted based on the activity of large wallets?

Tracking large wallet transactions allows one to identify likely scenarios with high accuracy. Historically, periods of active accumulation by whales have often preceded growth, especially during bull cycles. However, macroeconomic conditions can adjust these signals, so on-chain analysis is best used in combination with other market assessment methods.

Conclusion

The end of 2025 showed that the current sideways movement is not a sign of market weakness, but a phase of profound restructuring. The shift among major crypto market holders has become a defining feature of this period. This movement of capital alters the supply structure, even if the price remains stable.

This means investors should shift their focus from short-term fluctuations to on-chain data on large volume movements and the behavior of long-term holders. Understanding how and why “whales” move cryptocurrencies enables us to interpret the current phase as a mature stage of the cycle rather than its end. In this context, sideways movement becomes a tool for preparing for the next significant market shifts.

Thank you for your attention. Invest safely and profitably!

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